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HOOD Analysis
Finance Major
July 03, 2025
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)
Quantitative Analysis Report
Prepared by: Finance Major
Date: July 3, 2025
Executive Summary
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) has demonstrated robust growth in 2025, driven by product innovation, international expansion, and strong financial performance. The company’s recent foray into tokenized US stock trading for EU users and continued momentum in crypto and options trading have positioned it as a leader in the next generation of financial services. This report provides a comprehensive quantitative analysis, incorporates the latest news, and includes my personal model output.
1. Key Financial Highlights
Metric | Q1 2025 | YoY Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
Net Revenues | $927 million | +50% | Driven by crypto, options, equities |
Net Income | $336 million | +114% | Significant profitability improvement |
Crypto Revenue | $252 million | +100% | Major growth driver |
Options Revenue | $240 million | +56% | Strong trading activity |
Equities Revenue | $56 million | +44% | Recovery in equity markets |
Assets Under Custody (AUC) | $221 billion | +70% | Record net deposits, TradePMR deal |
Funded Customers | 25.8 million | +1.9 million | Sequential growth of 620,000 |
Cash & Equivalents | $8.86 billion | — | Strong liquidity |
Price/Earnings (P/E) | 75.95 | — | High growth multiple |
Price/Sales (P/S) | 27.34 | — | Reflects premium valuation |
Market Cap | $86.46 billion | — | As of July 2, 2025 |
2. Recent News & Strategic Developments
EU Expansion & Tokenized Stocks:
Robinhood launched tokenized US stock trading for EU users, resulting in a 10–12% surge in share price and heightened market optimism. This move opens a vast new market and reinforces Robinhood’s leadership in fintech innovation.Product Innovation:
The company introduced a Layer 2 blockchain and expanded its crypto offerings, now supporting 26 US and 48 EU crypto assets as of Q1 2025.Institutional Confidence:
ARK Investment acquired 319,600 shares, signaling institutional confidence in Robinhood’s growth trajectory.Analyst Ratings & Price Targets:
8 firms rate HOOD as a “Buy” or “Overweight”.
Median analyst price target: $75.5
Highest: $90.0 (Summit Redstone Partners, Mar 2025)
Recent: $82.0 (Goldman Sachs, Jun 2025)
3. Stock Performance & Valuation
Metric | Value (as of July 2, 2025) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Share Price | $97.98 | 52-week range: $13.98–$100.88 |
Shares Outstanding | 882.42 million | |
Dividend Yield | 0.00% | No dividend policy |
Total Yield | 0.30% | |
Fair Value Estimate | $89.37 | Morningstar Quantitative |
Premium to Fair Value | 372% | Indicates high market optimism |
4. Earnings Momentum
Q1 2025 EPS: $0.18 (up 105.56% YoY)
Q2 2025 EPS Forecast: $0.21 (to be reported July 30, 2025)
Revenue Growth: 50% YoY in Q1 2025
Net Deposits: Record $18 billion in Q1 2025
5. Personal Model Output
Personal Model Output:
Projected 2025 Revenue: $4.1 billion
Projected 2025 Net Income: $1.2 billion
2025 EPS Estimate: $1.36
Target Price (DCF-based): $88.00
Key Assumptions: 30% YoY revenue growth, 25% net margin, 5% discount rate, 900M shares outstanding.
6. Risk Factors
Valuation Risk:
HOOD trades at a significant premium to fair value estimates, reflecting high growth expectations.Regulatory Uncertainty:
Expansion into tokenized assets and crypto may attract increased regulatory scrutiny.Market Volatility:
Revenue is sensitive to trading volumes and market sentiment.
7. Conclusion
Robinhood’s strong financial performance, innovative product launches, and international expansion underpin its premium valuation. While the company faces risks from regulatory changes and market volatility, its growth trajectory and institutional support remain robust. My personal model output aligns with consensus estimates and supports a constructive outlook, though current market pricing suggests limited near-term upside.