OSCR Analysis

Oscar Health, Inc. (NYSE: OSCR)

Comprehensive Financial Analyst Report with Custom Model Application
Prepared June 7, 2025

Executive Summary

Oscar Health, Inc. is a tech-driven health insurer targeting the U.S. individual, family, small group, and Medicare Advantage markets. The company leverages a proprietary digital platform to drive member engagement, streamline operations, and support value-based care partnerships. Recent quarters show strong revenue growth and a swing to profitability, though the stock trades with high volatility and mixed analyst sentiment.

Company Overview

• Founded: 2012 (as Mulberry Health Inc.)

• Headquarters: New York, NY

• CEO: Mark T. Bertolini

• Employees: ~2,400

• Market Cap: $3.64–$4.07 billion

• Industry: Managed Health Care / Health Services

Oscar stands out for its digital-first approach, aiming to simplify insurance and care navigation for members and partners through its +Oscar and Campaign Builder platforms.

Stock Performance & Valuation

• Recent volatility: 10.83% (30-day)

• Fear & Greed Index: 39 (Fear)

• Analyst Ratings: 2 Buy, 2 Hold, 2 Sell

Financial Analysis

Latest Results (Q1 2025):

• Revenue: $3.0 billion (up 42.2% YoY, beat estimates)

• EPS: $0.92 (beat by $0.09)

• Net Margin: 0.28%

• Return on Equity: 2.28%

• Net Income (ttm): $123.34 million

• EPS (ttm): $0.46

• Revenue (ttm): $10.08 billion

• Debt/Equity: 0.26

• Quick/Current Ratio: 0.73

Growth & Profitability:

• Revenue up 42.2% YoY in Q1 2025

• Net margin positive but thin; first consistent profitability since IPO

• Operating leverage improving, but margins remain below sector averages

Business Operations

• Product Lines: Individual, family, small group, Medicare Advantage, +Oscar tech platform, reinsurance

• Platform: Proprietary digital infrastructure for claims, engagement, and partner enablement

• Growth Strategy: Geographic expansion, B2B tech licensing, deepening provider/payor partnerships

Competitive Positioning

Oscar faces entrenched competition from legacy insurers (e.g., UnitedHealth, Centene) and other tech-enabled disruptors. Its digital-first, member-centric approach is a key differentiator, but scale and regulatory complexity are ongoing challenges.

Risk Analysis

• Profitability: Margins remain thin despite recent improvements; return metrics just turning positive

• Regulatory: ACA, Medicare, and state rules can impact pricing and expansion

• Market Volatility: High beta (1.7+), large price swings, and a "Fear" sentiment reading

• Liquidity: Adequate, but quick/current ratios below 1.0

Valuation & Outlook

• Valuation: P/E of 33.39 and forward P/E of 42.36 reflect growth expectations and tech premium

• Analyst Target: $17.38–$18.50 (11–20% upside)

• Technical: Trading above 50-day SMA ($13.88) but below 200-day SMA ($15.73)

• Forecast: Some sources predict a short-term pullback to $14.25 (-10%); others see moderate upside

Custom Model Application: OSCR Analysis

Model Overview

My custom model emphasizes:

• Forecasting based on the most recent quarterly data vs. prior quarter and same quarter last year

• Focus on revenue, EPS, margin trends, and technical levels

• Integration of both fundamental and technical signals for actionable insights

Step-by-Step Analysis

1. Revenue Growth

• Q1 2025 revenue: $3.0B vs. Q4 2024 revenue (not specified, but YoY up 42.2%)

• Run-rate annualizes to $12B+ if sustained, outpacing trailing twelve months ($10.08B)

• Indicates accelerating top-line momentum

2. EPS and Profitability

• Q1 2025 EPS: $0.92 vs. $0.62 prior year quarter (+48% YoY)

• TTM EPS: $0.46, implying Q1 was an outlier or recent inflection point

• Net margin positive at 0.28%, first consistent profitability since IPO

• Model flags: Positive inflection in earnings, but sustainability needs confirmation over next 2–3 quarters

3. Margin and Efficiency

• Net margin: 0.28% (improved from negative prior years)

• Return on equity: 2.28%

• Still below sector averages, but trending up

4. Technicals

• Price: $15.42–$15.67, above 50-day SMA ($13.88) but slightly below 200-day SMA ($15.73)

• RSI: 63.47 (approaching overbought)

• Volatility: 10.83% (high)

• Sentiment: Bullish short-term, but Fear index at 39 and forecast for near-term pullback to $14.25

• Model flags: Caution on entry point; possible retracement ahead

5. Analyst and Market Sentiment

• Consensus: Hold; target price $17.38–$18.50

• Options activity: Elevated call buying, suggesting speculative interest

• Model flags: Mixed sentiment, with moderate upside potential but no strong conviction

Model Output: Investment Decision

• Momentum: Positive, with accelerating revenue and EPS growth

• Profitability: Recent inflection, but needs consistency

• Valuation: Not cheap, but not extreme for a growth/tech insurer

• Technical: Near-term overbought; risk of pullback

• Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic, but not euphoric

Model Verdict:
OSCR is a “green light” candidate for growth portfolios. You could wait for a pullback toward the $14.25–$14.50 support zone before considering entry. Monitor next quarter’s earnings for confirmation of profitability trend. Suitable for risk-tolerant investors seeking exposure to healthtech, but not a core holding at current levels.